05.22.2024 Local News

Market Report: Sydney Eastern Suburbs Autumn 2024

Market Report: Sydney Eastern Suburbs Autumn 2024

Low stock levels and other factors have been driving property prices higher in early 2024.

Dwelling values in Sydney’s eastern suburbs have been rising in early 2024, thanks partly to lower-than-usual stock levels. We explore the state of the market in Autumn 2024 and offer our insights into what to expect the remainder of the year.

Early 2024 by the numbers

Across Sydney, prices rose 9.6% in the year to 31 March 2024 according to CoreLogic, pushing the median citywide dwelling value to $1,139,375.

Most of this growth happened between April 2023 and September 2023. In the past six months, growth has been more sedate. Between October 2023 and March 2024, the citywide median dwelling price lifted just 1.7%, with the March quarter registering 0.9% growth.

This more subdued growth rate over the past half-year is reflected in Sydney’s auction clearance rate, which Domain reports has been sitting between 60% and 70% for most of this year. That’s still a sign of a strong market, but nothing like the runaway hot market of 2021, when we saw auction clearance rates across the city pushing well over 80% and sometimes even over 90%.

Here in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, the market is broadly a little tighter than the citywide average, with a higher auction clearance rate (75.2% for the weekend of 27 April).

This is causing prices in many suburbs and market segments to rise more rapidly than the Sydney average. However, as the table below shows these gains aren’t uniform, with some suburbs even going backwards over the past 12 months.

House price growth in Sydney’s eastern suburbs to March 2024

Suburb Median House Price March 2023 Median House Price March 2024 Difference
Paddington $2,930,000 $3,100,000 5.8%
Woollahra $5,200,000 $4,425,000 -14.9%
Bellevue Hill $8,910,000 $10,335,000 16.0%
Double Bay $5,370,000 $6,500,000 21.0%
Rose Bay $5,850,000 $4,875,000 -16.7%
Vaucluse $8,437,500 $9,500,000 12.6%
Bondi $3,530,000 $3,775,000 6.9%
Bondi Junction $2,332,500 $2,941,000 26.1%
Queens Park $4,025,000 $4,040,000 0.4%
Bronte $5,100,000 $5,500,000 7.8%
Clovelly $3,845,000 $4,505,500 17.0%
Coogee $3,560,000 $3,580,000 0.6%
Randwick $3,182,500 $3,303,750 3.8%
Kensington $3,512,500 $3,981,000 13.3%

* Source: realestate.com.au suburb profiles 30 April 2024

Apartment price growth in Sydney’s eastern suburbs to March 2024

Suburb Median House Price March 2023 Median House Price March 2024 Difference
Paddington $825,000 $893,000 8.2%
Woollahra $1,500,000 $1,350,000 -10.0%
Bellevue Hill $1,390,000 $1,450,000 4.3%
Double Bay $1,900,000 $1,857,000 -2.2%
Rose Bay $1,700,000 $1,491,500 -12.3%
Vaucluse $1,350,000 $1,535,000 13.7%
Bondi $1,405,000 $1,400,000 -0.4%
Bondi Junction $1,250,000 $1,210,000 -3.2%
Queens Park $1,260,000 $1,265,000 0.4%
Centennial Park $750,000 $909,000 21.2%
Bronte $1,570,000 $1,595,000 1.6%
Clovelly $1,385,000 $2,047,500 47.8%
Coogee $1,225,000 $1,400,000 14.3%
Randwick $1,040,000 $1,150,000 10.6%
Kensington $900,000 $960,000 6.7%

* Source: realestate.com.au suburb profiles 30 April 2024

Lack of listings a key factor

There are several factors driving prices higher in the eastern suburbs property market in early 2024. However, as we recently wrote, the most far-reaching is a lack of listings.

Data from CoreLogic has revealed that Sydney’s eastern suburbs is the tightest-held region in the country, with just over 0.3% of dwelling listed for sale at any one time.

Clovelly, which recorded some of the most impressive growth of any suburb over the past 12 months (17% for houses and 47.8% for apartments) is also the most tightly held suburb in the east, with just 0.29% of properties listed for sale at any one time.

So there appears to be a direct correlation between lack of listings and higher prices.

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The ‘catching up’ of suburbs

However, lower than usual stock levels don’t explain everything that’s happening in the market right now.

Another factor that we believe is behind prices in some suburbs has been them effectively ‘catching up’ with their neighbours.

For instance, we’ve often noted that Centennial Park apartments represented fantastic value compared with nearby suburbs. We’ve also argued that the extent of the price gap didn’t make sense.

Buyers too, seem to have caught onto this, and Centennial Park has been in demand over the last year. This has driven up prices to the extent that the price ratio between Centennial Park and Woollahra apartments went from 50% in March 2023 ($750,000 vs $1.5 million) to 67.3% in March 2024 ($909,000 vs $1.35 million).

It’s a similar story in beachside Clovelly. As we reported in late 2022, next door Bronte has been Sydney’s best performing suburb over the past three decades with prices rising 1,702%. Clovelly has performed well too, but as of March 2023, there was still a significant price gap between the two suburbs ($3.85m v $5.1m).

This has closed a little over the past 12 months as beachside buyers look to Clovelly for potentially better value than its neighbour.

Ultra-premium market not slowing down

Another factor worth noting is that the market for Sydney’s best properties shows no signs of slowing. Our city’s most expensive suburbs – such as Bellevue Hill, Double Bay and Vaucluse – have also been among the best performers over the past 12 months when it comes to house prices.

One reason for this is the very top end of those suburbs. We’ve previously estimated that there are only 220 houses in the eastern suburbs that truly count as harbourside. And yet, demand for these is growing. This is pushing prices at the very top end to astronomical levels.

With interest rates and cost of living pressures having little impact on this part of the market, prestige property has different drivers than other market segments, including the general health of the economy, exchange rates and even the amount of M&A activity.

As a result, unless there is an economic shock of some kind, we expect this segment to continue to grow faster than the market more generally.

Looking forward into 2024

As we move towards 2024’s midpoint, we believe the general steady pace of growth will continue, making it a good market in which to buy and sell (so long as you can find a property you like).

That said, the prestige market – and certain high demand suburbs, especially those in the beachside and harbourside eastern suburbs – are likely to outperform the average by some distance.

Want more?

If you’re interested in buying or selling property in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs, get in touch.